ARGENTINA MUST PAY DEBT WITH THOUSANDS of TONS of STOLEN GOLD
para mandar: http://wp.me/p2jyBb-Hk
(The New York Times)
HOLD ON Please: Don’t go too fast! … Argentina REPUBLIC was pushed to Ësquizofrenia/Anarquia on September 10, 1930 by POTUS-31 / Argentina is going to pay every cent of legitimate debt, but this time it is going to be under legal and constitutional rules: Argentine Constitution (article 29) and thousands of tons of Stolen Gold, and the USA Qui Tam / FSIA / FCPA / And Whistleblowers Acts. Pleae follow this link > http://wp.me/p2hqUO-Rk (This is a note of the Editor of the Blog (Dr. Gaston A. Saint Martin firstname.lastname@example.org Skype Gaston SaintMartin )
23 October 2015
BUENOS AIRES — As Argentina prepares for a new president, a glimmer of hope has emerged that a ferocious standoff with American hedge funds may be resolved within months.
On Sunday, Argentines will vote on who will succeed President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. The front-runner, Daniel Scioli, has at times shared her taste for fiery populist oratory.
Nonetheless, if elected president, he is expected to quietly seek a compromise with the hedge funds over nearly $100 billion of bonds that Argentina defaulted on in 2001.
”It’s very important to close out the holdouts issue,” said Gustavo Marangoni, an economic adviser to Mr. Scioli. ”It’s like a pebble blocking a funnel of investment.”
The standoff has kept the country locked out of global lending markets. Mrs. Kirchner has maneuvered to reach the end of her presidency without the need to return to those markets, but a new leader would need access to help rectify Argentina’s economy, analysts said.
”Whoever wants to govern Argentina needs a country with access to capital markets,” said Federico Thomsen, an economist based in Buenos Aires.
That will mean ending the feud with the hedge funds, often referred to as holdout creditors — or ”vultures,” in the words of Mrs. Kirchner’s government — led by a unit of the billionaire Paul E. Singer’s firm, Elliott Management.
The impasse dates to 2012, when Judge Thomas P. Griesa of the Federal District Court in Manhattan ruled that Argentina could not service the debt it restructured in the years after its 2001 default if it did not pay the litigating holdout creditors, in full, at the same time.
Argentina refused to accept the ruling, earning rebukes from Judge Griesa. Even facing the judgment of a United States federal court, Argentina issued dollar-denominated bonds this year under local law, but it had to pay premium interest rates of 8 to 9 percent. This angered the holdouts, who claim the new debt was marketed internationally and therefore subject to Judge Griesa’s ruling.
Mrs. Kirchner, 62, who is not permitted to run for a third consecutive term, has led a crusade against the hedge funds, accusing them of extorting her government.
Polls here suggest that Mr. Scioli could win on Sunday without the need for a runoff. His closest challenger is Mauricio Macri, a former businessman and soccer club president who has traditionally been viewed more favorably by investors. Mr. Macri has said that he would negotiate with the holdouts.
Yet politics colors these positions. Mr. Macri’s statements appear to have been intended as just criticisms of the government. In interviews, Mr. Macri’s economic advisers said they would let the issue languish and straighten out the economy by addressing other problems.
”I don’t think it’s life or death for Argentina,” said an adviser, referring to resolving debt dispute.
And on the campaign trail, Mr. Scioli, having been endorsed by Mrs. Kirchner, has been nearly as aggressive as the president in calling for a ”world without vultures.”
Mr. Scioli, a former powerboat racer turned state governor, indicated that he would not improve on the terms agreed to by a majority of bondholders in debt swaps in 2005 and 2010. They received about a 65 percent ”haircut” with some deals enhanced by payments pegged to Argentina’s growth rate. That is an offer that the hedge funds have already rejected.
”Argentina’s proposal is clear,” Mr. Scioli, 58, told reporters recently, smoking a cigarillo on the sidelines of a boxing match at a sports club he built next to his home in the Paraná River delta. ”We have to see now if they have the willingness to adapt to what Argentina has been offering.”
Mr. Scioli’s reliance on Mrs. Kirchner ”means he cannot address these issues publicly,” Nicholas Watson, who analyzes Argentina for Teneo Intelligence, a global advisory firm based in New York, wrote in a note to clients.
But if Mr. Scioli wins the presidency, he is expected to forge his own path, independent of the ideological constraints of Mrs. Kirchner’s leftist political movement, known as Kirchnerismo.
”Kirchnerismo is over,” said an adviser to Mr. Scioli who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ”Soon enough, they’ll realize.”
Mr. Marangoni and Mario Blejer, another adviser, said that Mr. Scioli’s government would reinitiate talks that have long been at an impasse.
”I’m in favor of opening negotiations with a very firm stance,” Mr. Blejer said in an interview
A third adviser, Miguel Bein, who could not be reached for comment, said at a conference in May that Argentina might pay up to 70 percent of the roughly $1.7 billion owed to the holdouts, a sum that includes interest.
That may not be enough to satisfy the holdouts, who have asked for nothing less than the full $1.7 billion.
Mr. Scioli is expected to make other changes in economic policy, including reducing monetization of the fiscal deficit to calm inflation, which is estimated at more than 25 percent, and a gradual devaluation of the peso that could help lure foreign investment and boost competitiveness.
These will require tapping global bond markets to bring in dollars, said Jimena Blanco, who monitors Argentina for Verisk Maplecroft, a risk analysis firm in London.
In the short term, the country may also need those dollars to bolster the central bank’s reserves, which dropped far below $30 billion this month after the government paid off $5.9 billion of maturing bonds.
Although many economists agree that Argentina should end the dispute with the hedge funds so it can bring in dollars by issuing debt abroad, others offer another argument: that the country can talk but delay a deal until the hedge funds cede ground and, in the meantime, attract big foreign investment or even issue debt.
Another presidential candidate, Sergio Massa, 43, an energetic lawmaker who bolted from Mrs. Kirchner’s party in 2013, supports this approach.
Mr. Massa said he would seek to strengthen his negotiating position with the holdouts by first returning to debt markets, using risk mitigation instruments offered by regional development banks to issue bonds at around half the rate investors currently demand.
”Argentina cannot go to Griesa’s bench and surrender,” Mr. Massa said at a lunch with reporters.
If the government reaches a settlement in the coming months, it could still have trouble raising money if it does not also make repairs to its economy, said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin America strategy at Jefferies in New York. She cited Argentina’s fiscal deficit, which is estimated at about 7 percent of gross domestic product, and the precariousness of the central bank’s reserves.
”Does legal access to the markets mean market demand?” Ms. Morden said. ”No. The markets aren’t lenders of last resort.”